India VIX Rises 4.49% Early as Oil Nears $97 and Middle East Risks Weigh on Indian Markets

Mumbai, Sept 8: India VIX came under upward pressure in the opening session on Tuesday as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed crude oil prices higher and Indian equities opened lower. India VIX moved from yesterday’s close of around 10.68 into the 11.1–11.3 range, with one live reading showing 11.16, up 4.49% at 9:24 IST, while its intraday high reached about 11.35. At 10:08 IST, the index was quoted at 11.15, down 0.01 (-0.09%), with a day range of 10.45–11.39. 

US-Iran Tensions Lift Gulf Supply Risks 

The latest escalation between the US and Iran emerged as the most significant fresh global development during Tuesday’s early session. Iran again threatened retaliation against the US and warned that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including US oil and gas interests, could be vulnerable. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also slowed at the start of the week after Iran issued retaliation threats. 

The developments raised concerns around potential disruption to Gulf energy supplies. For India, the issue carries particular significance because the country imports roughly 85% of its crude-oil requirements. The renewed geopolitical tensions therefore coincided with higher oil prices and concerns around India’s import costs, inflation and currency outlook. 

Brent Near $97 Adds Pressure to Indian Markets 

Crude oil remained another major factor during the opening session. By 0400 GMT, Brent crude had risen to approximately $97.49 a barrel, up about 0.5%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $92.92, up roughly 1.6%. Another Asian-session update placed Brent at around $97.04, marking its third consecutive day of gains. 

The rise in crude prices brought several concerns for Indian markets, including a higher import bill, pressure on the rupee, greater inflation risks, potential pressure on corporate margins and consumption, uncertainty around Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy, and risks to current-account dynamics. These factors coincided with the rise in India VIX during the early trading period. 

Prolonged Oil Disruption Raises Volatility Concerns 

The oil market was also responding to concerns that the disruption could last longer than a short-lived geopolitical episode. Analysts increasingly see the possibility of prolonged disruption to Persian Gulf supplies. ANZ said the latest escalation could keep Persian Gulf supply constrained through the remainder of 2026. 

Goldman Sachs also raised its December 2026 Brent forecast by $5 to $85 and its 2027 forecast to $80, based on an assumption that Middle East shipping disruptions could continue into next year. The focus therefore extended beyond the immediate oil-price increase to uncertainty surrounding the potential duration of supply disruptions. 

Nifty Falls 0.15% As Sensex Opens 0.21% Lower 

Indian equities opened lower at 9:15 IST, adding to the pressure on India VIX. The Nifty 50 fell 0.15% to 23,743.1, while the Sensex declined 0.21% to 75,970.28. Nine of 16 major sectors were lower at the open. 

The weakness followed the previous session’s decline, when Indian equities touched six-week lows. The Nifty had also closed below 23,800 on Monday. The combination of a weaker opening and recent market lows placed the benchmark indices closer to levels that had already become important during the preceding session. 

Early market activity later showed the Sensex down around 400 points, while the Nifty moved below 23,700, indicating that the initial weakness had not been immediately reversed. 

GIFT Nifty Signals Weak Start Before Cash Market 

The domestic market had already received a negative signal before the cash market opened. GIFT Nifty was reported around 23,796.5 in early trade, indicating a weaker opening bias. Later data placed GIFT Nifty at around 23,755.5, down 0.30%. 

The lower futures indication came ahead of the 9:15 IST cash-market opening and coincided with the subsequent decline in the Nifty and Sensex. The weaker index opening formed part of the early-session backdrop in which India VIX moved into the 11.1–11.3 range. 

Mixed Asian Markets Limit Broader Global Weakness 

Asian markets did not show a uniform decline on Tuesday. The Nikkei 225 was around 0.2% higher, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index gained around 0.2%. The KOSPI was stronger by around 1.2%, while Australia’s market declined about 0.6%. S&P 500 futures were down around 0.1%. 

The mixed performance meant the early India VIX movement did not coincide with a broad Asian equity sell-off. Instead, the domestic opening took place against a backdrop dominated by Middle East developments, higher crude prices and the resulting concerns around India’s oil exposure. 

US Holiday Leaves Futures as Key Global Signal 

US markets were closed on Monday for Labour Day, leaving Indian markets without a fresh full-session US equity close before Tuesday’s opening. Market participants therefore had to assess US futures, Treasury yields, oil prices, geopolitical developments and Asian trading activity. 

During the Asian session, S&P 500 e-mini futures were down about 0.1%. This provided a limited US equity signal as Indian markets opened, while geopolitical developments and crude prices remained prominent in the overnight global backdrop. 

US 10-Year Yield Holds Near 4.79% 

US Treasury yields also remained elevated. The US 10-year Treasury yield stood around 4.788%, up approximately 0.6 basis points during the Asian session. Markets were also pricing around a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 meeting. 

Higher US yields added another global financial-market consideration during the Indian opening session. However, the supplied market assessment identifies the Middle East and crude-oil developments as considerably more important to the early India VIX move than US rate expectations. 

Rupee Holds Near ₹94.50 as Oil Limits Gains 

The rupee was expected to open broadly stable at around ₹94.48–₹94.50 per dollar. Higher oil prices, however, limited the scope for further rupee appreciation. Importers were increasing foreign-exchange hedging, while the RBI remained active around the ₹94.50 level. 

Higher US Treasury yields also placed pressure on the currency. Although the rupee remained near ₹94.50, the combination of crude prices, importer hedging and global yields kept currency developments relevant to the domestic market backdrop. 

Defence Approval Worth ₹1.10 Lakh Crore Offers Support 

A major domestic development provided a counterweight to the broader market weakness. The Defence Acquisition Council approved proposals worth approximately ₹1.10 lakh crore for equipment for India’s armed forces. 

Defence stocks including HAL, BEL, Paras Defence, BEML and Astra Microwave gained in early trading, with some rising by around 4%. The strength in the defence segment provided selective support while the broader market remained under pressure from crude prices and Middle East developments. 

Institutional Buying Provides Some Market Cushion 

Institutional activity also provided a supportive backdrop entering Tuesday’s session. On 7 September, foreign institutional investors bought about ₹280 crore, while domestic institutional investors bought around ₹566 crore. 

The buying activity meant the market was not entering the session against a combined foreign and domestic institutional selling backdrop. This formed part of the conditions alongside the weaker benchmark opening and the geopolitical and oil-related developments. 

India VIX Trades at 11.15 After Early 4.49% Rise 

At 10:08 IST on 8 September, India VIX stood at 11.15, compared with an opening value of 11.16 and the previous close of 11.16. Its day high was 11.39, while its day low was 10.45. The index’s 52-week high stood at 28.90 and its 52-week low at 8.72. 

The technical rating remained NEUTRAL. Classic pivot levels stood at R1 11.58, R2 11.99, R3 12.65, PP 10.92, S1 10.51, S2 9.85 and S3 9.44. Fibonacci levels were R1 11.33, R2 11.58, R3 11.99, PP 10.92, S1 10.51, S2 10.26 and S3 9.85, while Camarilla levels were R1 11.26, R2 11.36, R3 11.45, PP 10.92, S1 11.06, S2 10.96 and S3 10.87. 

September VIX History Shows 3.51% Average Change 

Seasonality data shows that India VIX has recorded positive returns in 9 of 18 years during September. The month’s maximum positive change stands at 34.92% in 2018, with an average positive change of 16.96%. The maximum negative change was -26.10% in 2009, while the average negative change was -9.93%. The overall average change for September stands at 3.51%. 

India VIX’s early-session movement on 8 September 2026 coincided with renewed US-Iran tensions, Brent crude near $97, a weaker Nifty and Sensex opening, elevated US Treasury yields and rupee-related concerns. Defence-sector strength and institutional buying provided counterweights, while India VIX remained within its 10.45–11.39 intraday range by 10:08 IST. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix