Indian Markets Poised for Cautious Start; RBI Policy in Spotlight

October 1, 2025 – The Indian equity markets were expected to open on a cautious and tentative note on Wednesday as investors awaited the RBI’s monetary policy outlook, which is expected later during the day. Both benchmark indices started slightly higher than their previous day’s closing prices. At 11:30 AM, the Nifty50 traded at 24,758.05 (0.60% higher than the previous day’s closing price), and the Sensex was placed at 80,687.36 (0.52% higher than the previous day’s closing price).

Gift Nifty Signals Flat-to-Weak Opening

Gift Nifty traded at 24861 (0.38% higher from the previous close). Even though the index had a subdued start, the positive investor sentiment soon started to show the impact as it surged along with the other benchmark indices.

RBI Policy in Focus

Market participants remain cautious ahead of the central bank’s decision. A poll of bankers, economists, and fund managers suggests that the RBI is likely to maintain the status quo on rates, adopting a neutral stance. The policy is critical because it comes on the back of three key updates: the strong domestic growth rebound, GST reforms that have massively reduced tax rates, and retail inflation staying well below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%.

Previous Session Recap and Technical Outlook

On September 30, markets extended their losing streak to eight sessions, pressured by persistent foreign outflows. The Sensex slipped 97 points to 80,267 (-0.12%) while the Nifty50 declined 24 points to 24,611 (-0.10%). FPIs were net sellers worth ₹2,327 crore, whereas DIIs absorbed the pressure with net purchases of ₹5,761 crore. Technically, Nifty faces resistance at 24,800–24,850, while support rests at 24,550; a breach could push the index lower towards 24,300.

Global Market Cues

The American markets soared in the previous session with all three benchmark indices (S&P500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones) reaching to a record close. The Asian markets showed a mixed trend, with the Nikkei down 1.05%, the Kospi up by 0.68%, and Mainland China and Hong Kong closed for holidays.

The stage is set for a cautious opening with Gift Nifty hovering near flat territory. All eyes are on the RBI’s policy announcement, which could dictate near-term market direction.

Disclaimer: At HDFC SKY, we take utmost care and due diligence in curating and presenting news and market-related content. However, inadvertent errors or omissions may occasionally occur.

If you have any concerns, questions, or wish to point out any discrepancies in our content, please feel free to write to us at content@hdfcsec.com.

Please note that the information shared is intended solely for informational purposes and does not make any investment recommendations