US Actually has a Trade Surplus of $35-$40 Billion with India, Says Think Tank

Mumbai, May 26, 2025: Despite a visible trade deficit of $44.4 billion in FY2024-25, the United States maintains an overall surplus of $35–40 billion in its economic exchanges with India when sectors such as education, digital services, finance, intellectual property, and defence are included, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

The Delhi-based think tank highlights that the common narrative focused solely on goods trade paints an incomplete picture. While India exported $86.5 billion worth of goods to the US and imported goods worth $45.3 billion, creating a goods surplus of $41 billion, the broader economic engagement tells a different story. In services, India earned an additional $3.2 billion surplus by exporting $28.7 billion and importing $25.5 billion.

Yet, according to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, these official trade statistics overlook critical American revenue streams from India. He estimates that the US annually earns $80–85 billion through avenues not reflected in trade balance sheets. This includes income from education, technology services, financial operations, defence sales, and licensing.

One of the largest contributors is higher education. Over 250,000 Indian students in the US collectively spend more than $25 billion each year, approximately $15 billion on tuition and $10 billion on living costs. Institutions like USC, NYU, Northeastern, and Purdue are among the top beneficiaries.

Technology majors such as Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta collectively generate $15-20 billion annually from India through digital ads, app stores, cloud services, and subscriptions most of which is repatriated to the US due to limited domestic regulation.

US banks and consulting firms also benefit significantly, earning $10-15 billion annually by advising Indian corporations and managing cross-border deals. Additionally, Global Capability Centers (GCCs) based in cities like Bengaluru and Hyderabad generate $15–20 billion annually in revenues, though the economic value is largely captured in the US.

GTRI reports US pharma firms earn $1.5-2 billion via patents, while automakers gain $1.2 billion. Hollywood and streaming platforms add $1–1.5 billion. Srivastava urges India to negotiate trade deals from strength, dismissing deficit fears and seeking balanced, reciprocal agreements.

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