A Crude Waiver Paves the Way for Rupee Revival 

The U.S. Treasury Department issued a 30-day waiver permitting Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude already in transit. The exemption allows those shipments to proceed notwithstanding existing sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. The move is intended to ease pressure on global oil markets amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Major US stock markets staged a notable recovery attempt in the final hour of trading but still closed in negative territory. The Dow fell 784.67 points, or 1.6%, to 47,954; the S&P 500 slid 38.79 points, or 0.6%, to 6,830; and the Nasdaq declined 58.50 points, or 0.3%, to 22748.

Elevated energy costs reignited inflation concerns. The VIX spiked 18%, reflecting heightened investor fear, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.13% — its highest in three weeks — as selling intensified, and markets reassessed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

European natural gas futures surged nearly 70% on the week after Qatar suspended liquefied natural gas loadings following Iranian drone strikes on its primary export facilities. Gas stockpiles across Europe have fallen to multi-year lows, and even December 2026 contracts rose around 40% as traders positioned for a prolonged tightening in global gas supply.

Asian equity markets are attempting a recovery from Friday’s lower levels. Despite the broad selloff, investor conviction around AI infrastructure in Taiwan and South Korea remains intact.

Gold traded above $5100 per ounce, as the escalating Middle East conflict drove safe-haven demand. Investors shifted increasingly into precious metals and the Japanese yen to hedge geopolitical tail risks, with gold further supported by falling real rates and persistent uncertainty over global energy supply.

Indian Rupee reclaimed most of Wednesday’s losses, appreciating by 55 paise on Thursday. This recovery was supported by suspected central bank intervention and a recovery in risk assets. The rupee also benefited from a pullback in the US dollar and energy prices. Currency markets will breathe a sigh of relief as India secures a crude oil import waiver.

Indian equity markets are poised to open lower today on soft global cues. For Nifty, short-term support now rests at the recent swing low of 24,305, while the 24,850-24,990 zone serves as resistance.

Source: HSL Prime Daily, 06 March 2026