Global Market Round Up on Commodities by HDFC Securities Feb, 12 2026

Gold and silver futures rallied on Wednesday as investors weighed shifting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions. The advance followed Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, which initially raised the probability of three Fed rate cuts this year, up from two just a week earlier. However, markets pared those expectations after stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data. The January nonfarm payrolls report showed 130,000 jobs added, well above forecasts of 55,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. The stronger labor market data tempered expectations for rapid Federal Reserve easing, although the broader policy pivot toward eventual rate cuts remains intact.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continued to underpin safe-haven demand and provide support to precious metals. In the latest developments, Washington is reportedly considering intercepting tankers carrying Iranian crude and may deploy an additional carrier strike group if negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program break down. In the near term, we expect precious metals to trade within a range, with the next key catalyst likely to be tomorrow’s U.S. CPI release or any further escalation on the geopolitical front.

Crude oil futures moved higher as markets continued to price in a geopolitical risk premium tied to the U.S.–Iran situation. President Trump stated that he urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to continue negotiations with Iran ‘to see whether or not a deal can be consummated,’ keeping uncertainty elevated. However, gains were tempered by an unexpected 8.5 mbl build in U.S. crude inventories last week, as production rebounded from winter-storm disruptions, imports increased, and exports declined. In today’s session, crude prices are likely to face corrective pressure as long as they remain below the 5,988 level.

Natural gas futures settled higher in choppy trading, with little change in midday weather outlooks, as the market turned its focus to today’s storage report. Expectations are for a larger than-average withdrawal, with consensus estimates pointing to a 257 bcf draw for the week ended February 6—significantly above the five-year average decline of 146 bcf for this time of year

Source: HSL Report (HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily report 06-02-26)