Global Market Round Up on Commodities by HDFC Securities Feb, 16 2026

Gold extended its recovery, paring weekly losses after Thursday’s sharp decline of more than 3%, as softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data eased concerns about a renewed price surge and boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve may resume rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields edged lower and the dollar weakened following the release, providing near-term support to bullion. Data showed annual inflation slowed to 2.4% in January, below forecasts, while core inflation eased to 2.5%, strengthening dovish arguments within the Federal Reserve. This helped offset the impact of earlier strong labor market data, which had pushed rate-cut expectations toward July. The prior sell-off in precious metals had occurred amid a broad cross-asset unwind, as simultaneous declines in equities and cryptocurrencies forced investors to liquidate gold and silver positions to raise cash.

Looking ahead, we expect precious metals to consolidate within a broader range in the near term, particularly as Chinese market participants—who have contributed to recent volatility, especially in silver—remain on holiday.

Crude oil ended the week lower as easing U.S.–Iran tensions reduced geopolitical risk premiums. President Trump’s comments suggesting prolonged nuclear talks with Iran lowered the near-term risk of supply disruptions. Additional pressure came from speculation that OPEC+ may increase production and rising floating storage levels, with Vortexa estimating around 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude currently held on tankers—over 50% higher than a year ago.

Natural gas prices tumbled more than 5% as markets shifted focus to the late-winter weather outlook and expectations for end-of-season storage levels. Following a period of extreme cold, meteorologists now expect milder conditions to prevail through at least February 28, likely reducing heating demand and easing supply concerns.

Copper and other base metals declined last week, with copper prices pressured by weaker spot demand amid softer buying from China and elevated price levels. At the same time, inventories across Asia continued to build, reinforcing near-term supply concerns and weighing on sentiment.

Source: HSL Report (HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily report 16-02-26)