Global Market Round Up on Commodities by HDFC Securities Feb, 17 2026

Gold and silver edged lower on Monday as a modest recovery in the U.S. dollar and a lack of follow-through buying weighed on precious metals. Trading activity remained subdued, with both U.S. and Chinese markets closed for holidays. Chinese participants have played a significant role in recent volatility—particularly in silver—and their absence contributed to thinner liquidity conditions.

The near-term outlook appears somewhat fragile. Downside risks could increase if bullion remains below the key $5,000 level, as this may further discourage bullish traders following the recent volatility. However, several supportive fundamentals remain intact, limiting the scope for aggressive bearish positioning. As a result, short-term speculators are cautious about building large short positions, given that the broader macro backdrop continues to offer underlying support. Investors are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, the advance estimate of U.S. GDP, and PCE inflation data for clearer guidance on the policy outlook.

Crude oil traded steady after posting its biggest gain in a week, as geopolitical risk premiums rose following Iran’s naval drills near a key regional shipping chokepoint ahead of scheduled talks with the United States later today. The exercises heightened concerns over potential disruptions to energy transit routes. At the same time, Iran’s atomic chief indicated that Tehran could consider diluting its most highly enriched uranium in exchange for the full removal of financial sanctions, suggesting room for diplomatic engagement.

Meanwhile, U.S.-led negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are also set to begin later today, although markets remain cautious about the prospects for a near-term breakthrough. For today’s session, price action is likely to be driven primarily by geopolitical developments and the outcome of ongoing negotiations.

Copper and other base metals declined on Monday, extending last week’s losses as mainland Chinese investors remained sidelined for the week-long Lunar New Year holidays, resulting in subdued trading volumes and softer economic activity

Source: HSL Report (HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily report 17-02-26)