Global Round Up on Commodities by HDFC Securities 

Gold and silver price action turned corrective over the past week, easing previously overbought conditions. Spot gold declined by around $200 over the week, while silver fell by approximately $6.50. The pullback was largely driven by the impact of CME Group’s increase in margin requirements at the end of 2025, which prompted position liquidations at the start of the week.  

Looking ahead, we expect price action to remain volatile this week amid mixed global cues. Geopolitical risks continue to underpin safe-haven demand and act as a tailwind for bullion, particularly following heightened U.S. actions against Venezuela. In Asian trading on Monday, spot gold rose nearly 2.0%, while silver surged more than 6.0%. While the bullion market has entered a short-term corrective phase, this is likely to act as a near-term headwind for precious metals before the broader uptrend reasserts itself.  

Crude oil ended the previous week on a positive note, supported by heightened geopolitical concerns surrounding Venezuela and Ukraine. Despite reports of a series of U.S. attacks in Caracas and other regions, Venezuela’s oil infrastructure remained largely unaffected. Additionally, Venezuela currently produces less than 1 million barrels of crude per day, accounting for under 1% of global output, so no major price impact is likely to be seen after the event. Meanwhile, global oil supplies are projected to exceed demand by around 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026, which would represent a record surplus, keeping broader fundamentals weak. Going forward, crude prices are expected to remain sensitive to ongoing and fresh developments on the geopolitical front.  

Copper rose nearly 2.0% higher as expectations of a tighter global market continued to support prices. The metal surged to a series of all-time highs during an end-of-year rally, ultimately emerging as the top performer among the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange in 2025.  

The focus in the coming week will remain on geopolitical developments, while on the macro front, investors are now eyeing December’s jobs report on Friday, alongside JOLTS and ADP employment data, ISM PMIs, and the Michigan consumer confidence survey. 

Source – HSL Prime Weekly, 5 Jan 2026 

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