HDFC ͏Secur͏iti͏es Commodity Dail͏y: Go͏ld͏ a͏nd Silver͏ ͏Tumble Over 1% as Stronger Dollar͏, Ris͏ing Yields Reshape Fed Rate Cu͏t Bets

Mumbai, March 6, 2026: Precious met͏als w͏itnessed a sharp sell͏-of͏f in Thursday’s trading session, with COMEX ͏gol͏d sliding 1.13% to $͏5,082.30 an͏d COME͏X sil͏v͏er dropping 1͏.56% to ͏$82͏.24 ͏per ounce, as a resurgen͏t US dollar and climbing Tre͏a͏su͏ry yields exerted ͏pressure on no͏n-yielding asset͏s.

The͏ dollar in͏dex str͏engthened 0.͏55% to 99.317͏, reversing its r͏ecent downtrend͏ afte͏r crude oil’͏s large͏s͏t͏ single͏-da͏y g͏ain in nearly six ͏years͏ reignited inflation c͏o͏ncerns ac͏ro͏ss global market͏s.

Surging Crude Oil P͏rices Jump 8.5%͏ to $81.01

The ͏dra͏m͏ati͏c reversal͏ in market sentime͏nt stems from W͏TI cr͏ude͏’s͏ 8͏.5͏1͏% surge to set͏tl͏e at $81.͏0͏1 per barrel on Wedne͏sday, ma͏rking its ͏m͏ost s͏ignificant dai͏ly͏ gain in ͏six͏ year͏s. ͏The spi͏ke ͏followed esc͏a͏lat͏ing Middle E͏ast tensions as the Pe͏rsi͏an Gulf confl͏i͏ct entere͏d i͏ts sixth day, triggering con͏cer͏ns that fight͏ing could disr͏upt͏ ͏vital oil flows and fo͏rce production͏ shutdowns.

This energy price shock has challenged previous market assumptions that inflationary pressures would continue their easing trajectory, forcing traders to recalibrate expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Stronger Dollar Hits 99.317 as Energy-Led Inflation Concerns Dampen Safe-Haven Demand 

The greenback’s strength accelerated as rising energy costs fed into broader inflation expectations, reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Higher oil prices tend to permeate through the economy, potentially slowing the pace of future interest rate reductions.

This environment typically favours the US dollar and yields while pressuring assets like gold and silver that offer no interest income. Market participants noted that some safe-haven flows have rotated toward the US dollar as funds adjust positions ahead of the shifting policy landscape.

Treasury Grants Russia Oil Waiver to Indian Refiners

In early Asian trading Friday, crude futures edged lower following intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who announced temporary measures to stabilise energy markets. The Treasury Department granted a waiver permitting Indian refiners to continue purchasing Russian crude, a strategic move aimed at countering Iran’s attempts to “take global energy hostage” and ensuring stable global supply.

This development partially offset the geopolitical risk premium built into prices during the week’s dramatic rally.

Natural Gas Rebounds 2.95% to $3.003 

The energy complex saw divergent movements as natural gas climbed 2.95% to $3.003, recovering from the previous session’s sharp losses. Support came from US storage data revealing a larger-than-expected withdrawal as colder weather across the Northeast region boosted heating demand.

The rebound highlights ongoing volatility in gas markets amid shifting seasonal consumption patterns and supply considerations.

Copper Falls Below $13,000 Per Ton 

Base metals presented a mixed picture, with LME copper declining 1.19% to $12,902 per ton after breaking below the $13,000 psychological level. London Metal Exchange inventories surged to a 16-month high, creating a bearish overhang that reversed the momentum from January’s rally that had pushed prices above $14,500 per ton. The inventory build suggests softening near-term demand fundamentals despite ongoing supply considerations.

Aluminium Surges to 2022 Highs After Alba Declares Force Majeure

In contrast, LME aluminium demonstrated strength, climbing to its highest level since 2022 after Aluminium Bahrain BSC suspended deliveries to certain customers under force-majeure clauses.

The production disruption tightened near-term supply availability, offsetting broader market weakness in the base metals complex. Other industrial metals faced pressure, with LME zinc falling 2.96% to $3,227 and LME lead declining 1.07% to $1,941.50.

MCX Metal Futures Mirror Global Trends

Domestic commodity markets reflected the global sentiment, with MCX Gold April futures settling at ₹159,673, down 1.15% on the day. Trading ranged between ₹159,212 and ₹163,142 as open interest expanded 3% to 7,894 contracts.

MCX Silver May futures declined 1.27% to close at ₹262,191, moving within a ₹257,992 to ₹274,251 band. Trading volumes in silver remained steady while gold saw a 7% increase in volume, indicating heightened participant activity during the sell-off.

Crude Oil Jumps 5.46% to ₹7,316, Natural Gas Edges Up 0.44%

MCX Crude Oil March futures surged 5.46% to settle at ₹7,316 per barrel, tracking the historic move in international benchmarks. The contract touched a high of ₹7,353 against a low of ₹6,878, with open interest climbing 4% to 15,789 contracts and volume expanding 5% to 92,754 lots. MCX Natural Gas March futures added 0.44% to close at ₹273.6, recovering from early session lows as storage data provided support.

Copper Declines 1.19% to ₹1,194.90, Zinc Slumps 2% as Volumes Surge

Among industrial metals on the domestic exchange, MCX Copper March futures fell 1.19% to ₹1,194.90, with trading volumes spiking 20% to 7,770 contracts as participants reacted to the LME inventory build. MCX Zinc March futures dropped 2% to ₹321.30, witnessing an extraordinary 82% surge in volume to 2,202 contracts. MCX Aluminium bucked the trend, edging up 0.11% to ₹330.60 on 63% higher volumes, supported by the global supply disruption news.

Dow Jones Slips 1.61%, Nikkei Jumps 1.90% to 55,278

Across international equities, performance remained mixed as markets digested the commodity price movements and their implications for inflation and monetary policy. Japan’s Nikkei surged 1.90% to 55,278, while India’s BSE Sensex gained 1.14% to close at 80,016. In contrast, US markets retreated with the Dow Jones falling 1.61% to 47,955 and the S&P 500 declining 0.56% to 6,831. European indices also finished lower, with the DAX dropping 1.61% to 23,816 and the CAC sliding 1.49% to 8,046.

Currency Markets: Rupee Strengthens 0.59% to 91.605 per Dollar, Euro Eases 0.21%

In currency trading, the Indian rupee appreciated 0.59% against the greenback to close at ₹91.605 per US dollar, bucking the broader dollar strength trend. The euro weakened 0.21% to $1.1609 as the dollar index’s advance pressured major currency pairs. The divergence in rupee performance suggests resilience in domestic macroeconomic fundamentals despite global headwinds.

References

• HSL Prime Research Commodity Report