India’s Diesel Shipments to Europe Surge Ahead of 2026 Russian Fuel Ban

News Delhi, Sept 5, 2025 – India’s diesel exports to Europe saw a huge jump in August as buyers rushed to stock up on the fuel before the European Union’s ban on fuel, refined from Russian crude, comes into effect by January 2026. With just a few months left before the deadline, it could mean a dramatic shift in trade flows.

What Do the Numbers Imply?

For the record, India’s diesel exports reached a whopping 137% year-over-year in August. This accounts for approximately. 242,000 barrels per day(bpd), which is an impressive 73% jump from July.

According to Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics provider, the 12-month average has risen by 124%. Vortexa, another energy cargo tracker, estimated the growth of exports by 166% from last year at 228,316 bpd and 36% higher in comparison to July. India’s overall diesel exports across the world reached 603,000 bpd in August, which is about 17% higher compared to July and the same period last year.

Reasons Behind This Spike in India’s Diesel Exports

Several factors may have contributed to this surge. There was a supply disruption caused by a surprise maintenance schedule at Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands. This prompted the buyers to front-load purchases.

However, the primary reason, as cited by many analysts, is the fear of an EU ban, which has led many European buyers to approach India for their supplies, particularly diesel refined using crude from Russia.

Then, there’s also the expected winter demand. All these factors collectively point towards a favourable scenario for the demand for Indian diesel throughout 2025.

Impact of EU Sanctions

The European Union’s 18th package of sanctions now prohibits the import of refined products made from Russian crude, even those that have been processed in India. This places a heavy burden on Indian refiners such as Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, who are the major benefactors of supplies to Europe.

Since the blending of crude feedstocks tends to complicate traceability, enforcing the ban seems somewhat uncertain. Moreover, Europe imports nearly 1.2 million bpd of diesel, accounting for about 44% of its total oil demand. So the region is exceptionally vulnerable to supply shocks. European buyers may push to lift the bans on India, given that Middle Eastern refineries will undergo high maintenance in October-November.

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