Surging Towards $1 Trillion, Indian Exports Surpass $826 Billion In FY 26

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas war, and the Red Sea crisis, India has emerged as a resilient force in the export landscape. Speaking from Bern, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressed confidence that the country’s goods and services exports will surpass USD 825 billion in 2025-26.

In FY24, India recorded an all-time high of USD 825 billion in overall exports, up from USD 778 billion in the previous fiscal. Goyal affirmed that India is well-positioned to exceed this milestone in the current financial year, saying, “India has always emerged a winner in challenging times and we did a record USD 825 billion exports in 2024-25. This year, we hope to do much better.”

Export Growth Target: USD 1 Trillion by FY26

Backing this optimism, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has forecasted a 21 percent year-on-year growth in overall exports, projecting India will touch the USD 1 trillion mark in 2025-26.

According to FIEO estimates:

• Merchandise exports are expected to grow by 12 percent, reaching USD 525-535 billion from USD 437 billion in FY25.
• Services exports may see a 20 percent surge, climbing to USD 465-475 billion from USD 387 billion.

The anticipated growth is being driven by increased sourcing diversification from global buyers amid economic uncertainty. Key sectors contributing to this momentum include electronics, engineering, chemicals, textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture.

Strategic FTAs Set to Bolster Export Momentum

India’s recent focus on Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) is also playing a crucial role in boosting trade prospects. The FTAs with the UAE, Australia, and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) are expected to provide a significant push to exports.

The India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA), signed on March 10, 2024, is scheduled to come into force on October 1, 2025. The pact includes a commitment of USD 100 billion in investment over 15 years from EFTA nations, while offering India better market access for products such as Swiss watches, chocolates, and cut and polished diamonds at reduced or zero duties.

A Shift in FTA Strategy

Goyal also critiqued previous FTAs signed under earlier administrations, stating that deals with ASEAN countries were imbalanced and favored India’s competitors. He highlighted that many of these agreements removed duties on finished goods while maintaining tariffs on raw materials, causing inverted duty structures that harmed domestic industries.

In contrast, the current government is pursuing FTAs with developed nations and regions where strategic collaboration outweighs competition. These include Australia, the UK, the EU, the UAE, Oman, Peru, and Chile.

Investment Climate Continues to Improve

Addressing concerns on whether India would ease regulations to attract investments, Goyal noted that the USD 100 billion commitment under TEPA is based on the present regulatory framework. He emphasized the government’s ongoing efforts to improve the business environment through deregulation, reducing compliance burdens, decriminalizing laws, and enhancing overall ease of doing business.

“I think this USD 100 billion will be exceeded and come faster,” Goyal stated confidently.

As India strengthens its global trade presence, these strategic measures are expected to not only boost exports but also position the country as a key player in the evolving global supply chain.

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